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January 2006
New era set to begin
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Maybe it had something to do with the second-half spiral of the Falcons. Or the over-before-it-began Hawks season. Or just the fact that I’m getting older and four months goes by a lot quicker than it once did.
But for whatever reason, it seems like yesterday we were sitting in Minute Maid Park, watching an excruciating (for the Braves) 18-inning loss to Houston in Game 4 of the division series, which ended another division series disappointment for Bobby Cox and the boys.
And now they’re about to crank things up again. A new season — and new era, or sorts — gets off to its unofficial start Wednesday when new pitching coach Roger McDowell greets Atlanta’s arms at Turner Field for a one-week early throwing program that he absolutely doesn’t want us to call Camp Roger (this thing was called Camp Leo under his predecessor, whom you may have heard of, guy by the name of Leo Mazzone).
I just got off the phone with Roger this morning (Monday) and he’s very excited. His first major league pitching coach job, and he’s taking over for the man many believe could become the first pitching coach to enter the Hall of Fame someday. No pressure there, right?
Since being hired at the end of October, McDowell’s talked to every Braves pitcher on the phone and said he’s extremely impressed by their professionalism and eagerness to get to camp and get started. That’s good.
Hopefully, he’ll be just as excited after he sees what he’s got to work with.
It’s tough to project with this Braves staff. If most of them can stay healthy, they’ve got another potential top-tier rotation anchored by Smoltz and Hudson. But both veterans had injuries last season and both need to stay healthy and off the DL this year, particularly with Mike Hampton lost for the season (recovering from Tommy John elbow surgery). Beyoond that, can Jorge Sosa come repeat his performance in a breakthrough 2005 season? (By the way, a tip of the proverbial cap to Sosa, who went out of his way recently to credit Mazzone for his dramatic improvement.)
Can Horacio Ramirez get back on the path his career seemed to be headed when he won 12 games as a rookie in 2003, before injuries and confidence undermined much of his next two seasons?
And John Thomson — will the Braves stick with him and hope he has no further problems with the finger injury that sidelined him for much of 2005? Or will they trade Thomson, who’ll make $4.75 mill this season in an option year the club picked up? Because if everyone else is healthy in the rotation, the Braves might decide they’d be better served getting promising Kyle Davies into the rotation to begin the season and trading Thomson during spring training to fill another need, perhaps in a deal to obtain a closer.
Which brings us to the biggest question that went unresolved this winter: Who’ll close games for the Braves, who went from having one of the game’s most reliable closers (Smoltz) for 3-1/2 seasons to spending last year in a revolving cast of closers, which began miserably with Dan Kolb and ended with Kyle Farnsworth showing dominant form for stretch drive of the regular season, only to give up not one, but two soul-crushing homers that sent that decisive playoff game into extra innings at Houston.
Between Kolb and Farnsworth there was Reitsma in the closer role, going from NL reliever of the month in a near-perfect July to so-bad-he-lost-the-job-in-a-week in August. When he’s healthy and fresh, Reitsma can do the job, no question. But can he stay healthy and fresh for a full season? He’s faded at times each of the past two seasons from heavy workloads and/or nagging injury. That’s problematic for your closer, which is why the Braves would prefer to keep him in a setup role.
But if they can’t come up with a better option between now and opening day, be it from within the organization — an option they’ll consider is the hard-throwing Oscar Villarreal, acquired from Arizona in the Johnny Estrada trade — or by trade, then the Braves may have little choice but to go with Reitsma in the closer role. They won’t thrust Blaine Boyer or Villarreal or Joey Devine into that job unless the Braves feel certain they’re ready, and it might be difficult for, say, Devine, to prove he’s ready just by pitching in spring training games. Most agree Devine could use more minor league seasoning. And Boyer must show that his shoulder is healed and strong after the late-season inflammation that kept him off the playoff roster.
Anyway, it’s early and much can happen between now and April. I have an asterisk here after Thomson’s name, because he seems, to me, like the most likely guy to be traded to create a rotation spot for Kyle Davies, and I think the Braves really want Davies to feel secure and comfortable with a rotation spot going into the season. I also think 1B/OF Scott Thorman could work his way onto the roster, and Langerhans or Kelly Johnson could be traded. But Jurries makes more season as backup 1B because he bats right-handed; Thorman hits left-handed, same as LaRoche.
That said, here’s my projected 25-man roster. Please offer your own takes on what the Braves will and/or should do, but please be realistic and don’t add $10 million to their payroll or put guys on your roster that other teams aren’t going to part with this spring just because it sure would make sense for the Braves:
(You baseball-only folks can skip this paragraph and go to the roster. Those who were getting into last week’s discussion of movies/music and the like before it was interrupted, here’s couple of items: The Alejandro Escovedo show at The Earl on Thursday was sensational. Sold out, appreciative audience, and Alejandro seemed close to tears as he talked about playing again in front of live crowds after battling illness — Hepatitis C, etc. — in recent years. Anyway, if you were there, what’d you think? Also, was anyone else at the Bettye Levette show Friday at The 5 Spot? Wow. Tina Turner’s got nothing on Ms. Levette, who’s more soulful and vibrant at 60 than singers half her age. Hell, one-third her age. Also, saw movie “Match Point” and would highly recommend it. I was as tired of Woody Allen movies as most seemed to be in the past decade, but this one doesn’t feel like any of those tired, Upper-East Side ego trips his recent films felt like. It’s damn good, and Scarlett Johanssen is beyond hot. I mean, she’s smokin’ like never before in this flick.)
OK, hopefully those who weren’t interested in the non-baseball stuff skipped that graph or will simply ignore it and confine themselves to commenting on the makeup of the team or other Braves and baseball matters. Here’s my projected batting order and projected 25-man roster (or close to it). Let us know what you think:
STARTING LINEUP
2B Marcus Giles
SS Edgar Renteria
3B Chipper Jones
CF Andruw Jones
1B Adam LaRoche
RF Jeff Francoeur
LF Ryan Langerhans
C Brian McCann
ROTATION
RHP John Smoltz
RHP Tim Hudson
RHP Jorge Sosa
LHP Horacio Ramirez
RHP John Thomson* (Kyle Davies)
BENCH
3B/SS Wilson Betemit
2B/SS Pete Orr
OF Kelly Johnson
1B/OF James Jurries
C Todd Pratt
BULLPEN Seven pitchers from these nine:
RHP Blaine Boyer
RHP Oscar Villarreal
RHP Brad Baker
RHP Chris Reitsma
RHP Wes Obermueller
RHP Jeff Bennett
LHP Mike Remlinger
LHP John Foster
LHP Macay McBride
Are you feeling the WBC?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
For those who don’t want to waste your time reading a blog without any significant breaking news or major developments, here’s your warning: Don’t read further. Go complain on another blog.
There, that’s out of the way, so anyone still reading, you have no excuse for wasting yours and our time sending e-mail responses lamenting the lack of new information here or telling me to shut up talking about anything but Braves news.
Hang on for just one more week, or slightly longer than that. Then, we’ll have plenty, beginning with Roger McDowell’s pitching camp the first week of February (and no, it WON’T be called Camp Roger, as some TV folks have dubbed it. McDowell has specifically requested that the Braves not refer to it as such, and can’t say I blame him. New era, turn the page).
Now, on to the feeble blog:
Some have asked who will back up Chipper Jones at 3B. Wilson Betemit will, which is why he hasn’t been mentioned in trade rumors since the early part of the winter. Braves have no plans, as of now, to pursue another who could back up Chipper, which leaves only Betemit as proven major league 3B behind the recently injury-prone veteran Jones. Tony Pena could play there if he had to, maybe even James Jurries in a pinch, but Braves aren’t planning on either of those scenarios. And even though Scott Thorman was drafted as a 3B and pitcher years ago, he’s a 1B and LF now and the Braves aren’t thinking of moving him back to 3B, even as a backup. If Chipper needs a breather or gets hurt, Betemit’s the guy who’ll back him up. At least that’s the plan now, unless some 3B falls into the Braves’ laps this spring (doubtful).
One more note on Jurries: If the Braves decide they’re not comfortable with LaRoche playing 1B every day or simply prefer keeping that position a platoon, Jurries could be a serious candidate to replace Julio Franco in the role. Jurries is a right-handed slugger who’s hit 39 homers in 681 at-bats at Triple-A Richmond over the past two seasons. He’ll be 27 in April and now’s the time for him to get a shot with the Braves, if he has a real future with the team. (And yes, for those wondering why the name rings a bell, he’s the guy who tested positive for steroids last season and served a suspension).
What else? Oh, yes: If you’re as unexcited about the World Baseball Classic as I am, please raise your hand.
Just hurry up and play the thing, already. While I understand its significance will resonate in certain countries (just as winter ball does), I have a hard time believing a lot of U.S. sports fans are going to get worked up over glorified exhibition baseball games when the NCAA tournament is going on and the real baseball season is only weeks away (call us myopic, but even soccer’s World Cup doesn’t get a lot of attention in the U.S.).
I think the vast majority of people are so accustomed to the way things have always unfolded, with casual spring-training days rolling into more intensity as opening day approaches, that they’re not going to be able to get very excited about the WBC. Especially since I haven’t even seen a TV contract in place for the thing yet. I mean, if this thing is just on ESPN2 or ESPN Deportes, it might be in trouble).
Or am I wrong? Are a lot of you looking forward to the thing? If so, good for you and MLB. I know they’re counting on it being a success, so we’ll see. Maybe it’ll work. I do know that Dominican team will be a juggernaut. Unlike the US team, the Latin teams aren’t going to have a slew of guys pulling out of this thing. Many superstars from the Dominican, Venezuela and Puerto Rico play winter ball even after signing huge contracts in the majors, simply because it’s part of their heritage and because they’re proud to play in winter-ball playoffs and for their home countries in the Caribbean World Series and, now, this.
The Braves could be heavily represented in the - ho-hum - “Classic” even if Tim Hudson backs out, as he’s expected to do as soon as this week. Seventeen other Braves are on preliminary rosters for teams in the tournament, including at least eight or nine minor leaguers who have no chance of making the Braves’ major league team this spring. From the Braves organization there are three Panamanians, three Canadians, three Australians (four if someone you’ve probably never heard of named Donovon Hendricks plays for Australia instead of South Africa; he has ancestry in both places), and even two on Netherlands roster (Andruw Jones, of course, plus minor league OF Ardley Jansen). I’ll include full list at bottom here, for those interested in Braves who are on conditional rosters.
The marquee Braves who are still planning to play are the Joneses, Chipper and Andruw (for Netherlands) and reliever Chris Reitsma (Canada). Jeff Francoeur is also on the U.S. roster and would love to play, but it seems doubtful he’ll make the final 30-man roster cut, considering the wealth of OF talent the U.S. has on its roster.
Hudson hasn’t made it official, but last week he discussed this with Braves officials and indicated to them that he’ll not pitch in the WBC, after intitially committing to play when manager Buck Martinez surprised him with a phone call to ask if he’d be intersteed. Makes sense if he backs out, because the guy has had issues with side muscle strains for three consecutive years and spent a month on the DL last summer. Like John Smoltz, who reluctantly declined to play in the WBC, Hudson knows the Braves would prefer he avoid risking injury or getting worn down pitching competitive innings so early, and instead focus on preparing for the regular season. But they can’t say this publicly, because teams are supposed to be supportive of this WBC since MLB is pushing it so hard.
OK, that’s all I’ve got for now. I’d recomment that you rent the just-released DVD “Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room,” buy a ticket to see the remarkable singer/songwriter Alejandro Escovedo this Thursday night at The Earl, and give a listen to a couple of CDs I just picked up _ Danger Doom’s stunningly original and hook-filled “The Mouse and the Mask” and the stellar hard-country Tribute to Billy Joe Shaver - but I don’t want any bloggers bashing me for straying from the subject _ baseball, dammit! They want me to keep it on baseball. Because we can only concentrate on one subject at a time, right?
Later.
Braves on WBC conditional rosters:
Acosta, Manuel, Panama Camarena, Jose, Panama Francoeur, Jeff, United States Hendricks, Donavon, South Africa or Australia Hudson, Tim, United States Jansen, Ardley, Netherlands Jones, Andruw, Netherlands Jones, Chipper, United States Orr, Pete, Canada Reitsma, Chris, Canada Richards, Glen, Australia Rodriguez L., Manuel O., Panama Seguinol, Fernando, Panama Sosa, Jorge, Dominican Republic Stockman, Phil, Australia
Closer market dries up
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
And then there were none. With Danys Baez traded to the Dodgers there are no available closers, at least none we know of, for the Braves to sign or trade for before opening day.
That could change, of course. A team could decide during spring training that it has a glaring weakness in one area and enough of a bullpen surplus to trade an arm in order to fill that other need. The Dodgers, for instance, might decide that Eric Gagne’s elbow looks fine this spring and that they don’t need to pay Baez $4 mill for the former Tampa Bay closer to be a setup man for the $10 mill man Gagne. It could happen. Remember, it’s the Dodgers. Anything can happen at Chavez Ravine, and usually does.
But for now, the Braves will apparently make do with what they have, which is a proven setup man and sometimes-closer, Chris Reitsma, and a supporting cast that’s got lots of potential but little proven ability.
That said, let’s get to the important stuff: “Walk the Line” — best movie of the year? I think it was the most entertaining, being a huge Cash fan since before it became trendy to be one, and also being madly in love with Reese Witherspoon. (Wait, The 40-Year-Old Virgin was also highly entertaining, and the funniest movie in several years. And Hustle & Flow was damn entertaining, as well). But for best picture, I’d have to say the Oscar should go to Munich. Awesome movie. Best Spielberg movie EVER, and that’s saying plenty.
Most underrated and overlooked movie of the year? Easy — “Cinderella Man”. If you haven’t seen it, rent it today. Run, don’t walk, to Blockbuster (better yet, drive there). And while you’re there, rent Murderball. Also an incredible movie that I somehow let leave the theaters before I saw it last year. Forget any preconceived notions you may have about Murderball _ it’s just riveting, start to finish. And as for Cinderella Man, I’d have to put it with Raging Bull, Rocky and Million Dollar Baby as the best boxing movies of all time. And seriously, Cinderella Man might just be better than all of them. Even if you don’t like Russell Crowe, you will love this movie. And if you don’t, I’ll refund your rental charge (and if you believe that, I’ve got a couple of Falcons NFC championship game tickets I’d like to sell you).
OK, alright, back to the regularly scheduled blog.
Ultimately, this matter could be the deciding factor for the Braves. The bullpen could be the difference-maker in whether or not they win their 15th consecutive division title by fending off the newly fortified Mets and the somewhat renovated Phillies. Because if the Braves blow a bunch of saves early, like they did at the beginning of last season during Dan Kolb’s excruciating tenure as closer, there is the potential to fall behind in a division race that the Mets might finally be capable of winning going away. Repeat, might.
I still believe the Mets will finish behind the Braves, but have to admit most of my reasoning is based on the fact that they Mets are the Mets, and the Braves are the Braves. And until there’s a New World Order in the East, it seems like folly to pick against Bobby Cox, Smoltz and the Joneses over the course of the 162-game marathon they have clearly mastered. Picking against them in the playoffs, now that’s another matter entirely.
Did the Braves do the right thing in not overpaying for a free-agent closer and refusing to meet the Devil Rays’ demand for Kyle Davies as part of any trade package for Baez? I don’t know. Talk to me in July.
Part of me says they were right to not get into a bidding war for old man Trevor Hoffman or meet the ridiculous asking price for Todd Jones, or get into the four- and five-year bidding for the likes of aging Billy Wagner or largely unproven B.J. Ryan. But part of me says, are they ready to go into the season with a $2.5 million setup man (Reitsma), a journeyman-type lefty (John Foster) and a cast that also includes castoffs (Oscar Villareal, Jeff Bennett, etc.), talented youngsters coming back from injuries (Blaine Boyer, Joey Devine) and baby-faced kids with little experience (Chuck James, Macay McBride)?
Sometimes I think the Braves lack a healthy sense of urgency about their bullpen simply because year after year, they’ve continued to win the division with bullpens that are comprised largely of castoffs and kids, with not many of the high-priced and proven arms that other teams stockpile the way the Cubs have this offseason (not that that was a wise move by the Cubs, getting two $4 mill-a-year setup men, neither of whom warranted such a salary; but that’s another story).
While Schuerholz, Frank Wren, Cox and Leo Mazzone have managed to piece together ‘pens that get the job done well enough over the course of the season, last year they had to spend an inordinate amount of effort throughout the summer retooling their bullpen, trying to find answers before finally getting some order late in the season with Kyle Farnsworth closing and Reitsma setting up. Too much time and effort went into that bullpen project for most of the season. Even at the end of the season, the other roles in the ‘pen seemed ever-changing, and if the Braves had advanced beyond the first round, I’m skeptical of how their pitching staff would have held up during an NLCS.
But enough of that rant. It is what is is, and at this point, the Braves’ options are limited. After Baez was traded from Tampa Bay to the Dodgers for two young arms last week, it left no known available targets for the Braves to pursue. But Schuerholz and Wren and their scouts have a way of turning over rocks and nosing around all spring until they find someone at a suitable price, the way they got Chris Reitsma from the Reds and Juan Cruz from the Cubs in a couple of trades days before the 2004 season began. If they need to do it again, I’m sure they’ll try and probably succeed in coming up with an arm. Everyone knows that Atlanta has got plenty of pieces that teams want in trades, plenty of prospects and young players, and if they need to make a deal they’ll pull the trigger.
Still, the Braves don’t seem likely to get a top-notch guy at this point, not until late in the summer when teams fall from races and decide to deal away closers. If the Dodgers are 10 games behind in the NL West in July, do they really need to keep $10 mill closer Erig Gagne AND $4 mill setup man Baez, along with Yhency Brazoba, who saved 21 games last season and is still cheap? (Probably not a great example, since the Dodgers seem like they’ve spent enough this winter and filled enough holes to ensure they’ll at least be in the race through the summer, especially in that questionable division. But you get my point _ there will be teams that have expendable, high-priced arms late in the summer.)
Baez can be a free agent next winter, and the team’s $12 mill option on Gagne for 2007 probably won’t be exercised if the man who saved 152 games from 2002-04 doesn’t show that he’s fully recovered from last year’s elbow surgery.
The Braves also believe they have another big factor in their favor that shouldn’t be overlooked: Roger McDowell. Team officials and Braves veterans think McDowell, their new pitching coach and an accomplished reliever (and clubhouse prankster) for more than a decade as a player, can supply guidance and leadership for those kids and bullpen castoffs, that he will try and succeed in getting the most out of them. Mazzone, for all his talents, always put more of his emphasis on developing the rotation, and in turn developed his reputation largely through his indisputable results with veteran pitchers, be they stars in their primes (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz) or others who’d slipped and needed reclamation (Burkett and Jaret Wright immediately come to mind).
He had success with some youngsters, too (Steve Avery being the obvious example), but some young pitchers in recent years have complained privately to older pitchers about Mazzone’s brash nature and said they felt a bit bullied by him. (Please, folks, I’m just telling you what was told to me. I got along great with Leo and hated to see him go. The man’s now the highest-paid pitching coach in baseball, and there’s a reason the Orioles believed he was worthy of a three-year, $1.5 million contract. Godspeed to you, Leo.) For that reason, some — plenty, frankly — in the organization believe McDowell will provide something missing for the relievers and kids, while the stable veterans Smoltz and Hudson will assure the rotation guys keep doing what needs to be done to stay atop the NL in starters’ ERA.
I think the best news for the Braves is, they still have Cox in the dugout and Andruw Jones in center field, and they still have a starting rotation that’s better than the Mets, even with Mike Hampton recovering from surgery and out for the season. They have Smoltz and Hudson at the top, and three from the group that includes John Thomson, Horacio Ramirez, Jorge Sosa and Davies, the kid from McDonough who showed more than enough in his first few starts in the majors last summer to reinforce the Braves’ belief that he’s got top-of-rotation talent and guts for the long term.
One from among Thomson, Ramirez and Sosa could be traded this spring if (when?) the Braves decide they must get another bat and/or another reliever, but they seem determined to hang onto Davies, much as they were set on not trading top catching prospect Saltalamacchia this winter when team after team inquired about the slugging 20-year-old.
If I had to predict now, I’d say Adam LaRoche is going to get a chance to play every day at first base, since the Braves lost Julio Franco to the Mets and didn’t land Jeff Conine or a suitable replacement. Oh, and while on the subject — did the Orioles really need both Conine AND Kevin Millar? The Braves tried hard to get Conine, but not sure if they made any effort to get Millar, who’s going to make at least $2 mill and possibly close to $4 mill with incentives added in the deal he signed last week. Millar would have fit perfectly into the Braves’ clubhouse and given them a good bat off the bench and help at first base and left field, but his glove’s a liability and the Braves like to get good defense from their bench guys.
OK, I’ve rambled again with nothing new of substance to give you bloggers. Sorry, but it’s just been a dead time. I can’t make chicken salad from chicken entrails, or something like that.
I think the Braves are set until they get to spring training. Not that this is exactly the team they wanted — they were outbid for many players this winter, as you know — but they believe it’s good enough, at least for now. Only time will tell.
Catching up with DOB
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Welcome back to the Braves blog. Nothing happened since we shut things down, because the Braves also shut ‘er down a while. Vacations and such.
Won’t say I told you so, but the Braves were never going to blow the budget for a Zito or Nomar or Millwood (at $50 mill for five years, they’d have been insane to get involved in that) or trade for Manny or Tejada or Sammy Sosa or anyone else with a bloated price tag, despite the wild rumors and speculation. They even got outbid for Jeff Conine by the Orioles, which tells you how tight things really are in the Braves’ payroll, or rather how careful they’re being with every dollar.
And sorry to disappoint, but the team wasn’t going to be sold quickly to Arthur Blank and the payroll raised to $120 mill for 2006. Christmas came and went without any of those gifts left behind.
One other thing while I’m thinking about it: Braves weren’t close to trading Ryan Langerhans to Cleveland, despite a published report by a New England newspaper that speculated it would allow Coco Crisp to then be dealt to the Red Sox. The Braves were interested in Indians reliever David Riske (still might be), but weren’t anywhere near completing a Langerhans trade when that report came out before Christmas.
For those who may be wondering what’s up with the sale of the team, I’m not going to lie and tell you I know. I don’t. I’ve said all along I’m not convinced they’ll even be sold, but if they aren’t I think it’ll move at a glacial pace, like everything else does involving the sale of baseball teams. And it’s outside my realm in most respects, since we have sports-biz reporters making those calls every day.
(I think we have a savvy enough crowd here to make the following unnecessary, but I’ll say it just in case: The Braves are not, under any circumstances, regardless of who buys the team, going to move. Period. Just felt I should say that after reading some of the baseless concerns expressed by some in other AJC blogs after the sale story broke.)
On to other pertinent matters: Braves haven’t done anything significant since trading for Edgar Renteria, unless trading for Matt Diaz qualifies. And actually Diaz could become significant, since he’s raked against lefties in minors and even in brief time in majors, and he’s got power. He’ll get a chance to platoon in left field, either with Langerhans or Kelly Johnson. But someone could get traded before now and opening day from that group as the Braves try to fill the closer role.
Braves have also expressed interest in Detroit OF Craig Monroe, who’d be a solid pickup — right-handed hitter, batted .277 with 20 homers and 89 RBIs last season, when he made only $400,000. He’s arbitration eligible and Tigers are trying to use him to land someone big in trade market, so Braves might have to wait to see if he remains available. Should be noted — he hit .303 with seven homers and .360 OBP in 122 ABs vs. lefties last year and could be perfect platoon guy if Braves wanted to use him that way. But I think a Monroe deal has become less than likely for the Braves.
What else? Oh, the closer. Right now it’d probably be Reitsma, but right now the Braves don’t have to make that call to the bullpen. Still three months until they have to do that, at least in a game that counts.
By then, I still think they could have someone else to handle the closer job and Reitsma will be in charge of the eighth inning, where he’s been very effective when he’s not overused. If I had to guess right now, I’d still say Braves will land Danys Baez from Tampa Bay to close. I know Mets and others are also in running for him, and something could happen soon. But I just get the impression that the Braves know how much they need a closer and won’t be outbid for him as they’ve been for so many other closers — free agents and trade targets — this winter.
With the way the D-Rays overvalue their guys and hold out for the top price, a Baez deal also might not happen until spring training. Until Baez is in another uniform, I just think there’s a good shot he’ll end up a Brave by opening day — and if not then, perhaps later in the summer. And if he doesn’t, I’ll just edit these two paragraphs out and those who respond by calling me an idiot will look foolish later when people read your response and there’s nothing in this post that warranted said response (just kidding).
Braves still have money to spend — my educated guess is about $6 mill — but Schuerholz might decide to use it later when Braves could target a couple of high-priced guys at trade deadline and be able to afford them for stretch run. Of course, they’d only do that if they looked at the team they have during spring training and decided it would be good enough to stay in the NL East race until the trade deadline. Otherwise, gotta make the move this spring.
As for leadoff, please stop with the Corey Patterson talk (I’m getting e-mails). Folks, if the Braves are targeting Patterson and counting on him to be their leadoff man, the Braves are in far worse shape than any of us imagined. Not that they might not be able to use him in some capacity (Bobby has turned around bigger busts than him … hasn’t he? Wait — Patterson is a pretty huge bust, let me check on that….) but no way would they be counting on a 26-year-old outfielder with a .252 average and .292 OBP in 589 career games to step in and lead off for the 14-time division champions. No way.
(In case anyone forgot, Patterson bottomed out last year when he batted .215 with 118 strikeouts in 126 games for the Cubsters and was demoted to the minors at one point.)
Hopefully, Patterson will be dealt somewhere soon and locals who long for locals coming home to the Braves and flourishing will be able to get some rest.
Where do I see the Braves finishing in 2006? Glad you asked. I’ll go out on a limb and say they’ll win the NL East again. Mets have a loaded lineup and closer Billy Wagner, but still don’t have the starting pitching to knock them off, and Phillies are better but still have too many concerns.
But unless they have John Smoltz and Tim Hudson both healthy and pitching at top form when the playoffs start, and unless Andruw Jones has another monster year and Marcus Giles (if he’s the guy) succeeds in the leadoff spot and — important — Chipper Jones stays healthy up to and through the playoffs, they won’t get past the first round again. That’s not pessimism or optimism, that’s reality. No one does it better over 162 than Bobby and his lads, but that mentality alone doesn’t win it for you in the playoffs; pitching and hitting, and to some extent defense, win in the playoffs, and the Braves haven’t particularly excelled either in pitching or hitting during recent postseasons.
Here’s a bit of what should be good news for Braves fans: Smoltz told me last night he’s almost certainly not pitching in World Baseball Classic in March. It’s what he calls the first step in being smart and doing right things this year to stay healthy for the entire season and postseason. The bigger part of that plan is not overdoing things in midseason, and Smoltz realizes that. He knows it wasn’t so smart to pitch 8 or 9 innings every start for about two months last summer, and he thinks new pitching coach Roger McDowell will help remind him and monitor him and keep him from repeating the mistake this year.
Smoltz really does sound determined to stay healthy and not put his arm at risk, but we’ll see how that pans out once his competitive juices start flowing and if the Braves aren’t doing as well as he hopes this summer and he decides to put team on his shoulders. Can’d do that and hope to keep it going into October, and he knows it.
Smoltz also says Chipper is doing more to keep himself in shape this winter than in previous years, with a personal trainer and all. Can’t confirm that myself; Chipper hasn’t been reachable. I’ll believe it when Hoss tells me himself. I do know that Andruw and Smoltz and others, including several of the rookies, are doing the intensive training regimen again that Smoltz and Andruw did last year at the Forum gym and elsewhere. Andruw and several others are also hitting all the time at the private batting cage at Andruw’s home.
The man (Andruw) liked the results that his new program yielded last year in his 51-homer, NL MVP runner-up season, and seems determined to stay at his new echelon.
OK, that’s it for now. I’ll update if I hear anything.
