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Last year, when it came to the Oscars, all anyone could talk about were gay cowboys. "Brokeback Mountain" won everything from a Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival to best kiss at the MTV Movie Awards. And it still lost the Big O.

This year, no one really knows what movie to talk about. The three major critics groups were all over the map. The New York Film Critics Circle chose "United 93," the Los Angeles Film Critics Association opted for "Letters From Iwo Jima" and the National Society of Film Critics — which, according to Time's Richard Corliss, has the best Oscar record — named "Pan's Labyrinth."

FRANCOIS DUHAMEL/DreamWorks SKG, Paramount Pictures (ENLARGE)
With a lot of attention on Jennifer Hudson's star-making turn in "Dreamgirls," Beyoncé Knowles may be a nomination longshot.
NEIL DAVIDSON/Fox Searchlight Pictures (ENLARGE)
James McAvoy (left) provides "a true supporting performance" for Forest Whitaker (seated) as Ugandan dictator Idi Amin in "The Last King of Scotland." Whitaker won a Golden Globe Award.
BARRY WETCHER/20th Century Fox (ENLARGE)
Meryl Streep, as a fashion magazine editor in "The Devil Wears Prada," belongs in the supporting actress category.
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But I don't really see the members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences giving best picture of 2006 to a subtitled Spanish film featuring a little girl, a giant toad and a Silly Putty albino with eyes in its hands.

So what names will we hear when the nominations are announced Tuesday? Here are some thoughts, complaints and just plain wild guesses about what might happen in the six major categories. Oscars will be awarded Feb. 25.

BEST PICTURE

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True, it's a wide open field, but factoring in the films nominated by the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild's list for best ensemble cast (sort of its version of best picture), "The Departed," "Dreamgirls," "Babel" and "Little Miss Sunshine" are likely sure things. And given the results at the Golden Globes last Monday, "Babel" and "Dreamgirls" must be considered the ones to beat.

Longshots

"United 93": It's this simple: Is it too soon?

"Little Children": Depends on how the older academy members feel about child molesters. And it was shown on very few screens.

"The Queen": We know how they feel about England (love it), but that might not be enough.

"The Last King of Scotland": It's got Brit cred, too, but it's been lagging in the year-end round-ups.

"Letters From Iwo Jima" and "Flags of Our Fathers": Clint Eastwood's double whammy could be self-canceling.

My wish list

"Children of Men": Hard to say what happened here. It's got big themes, a name cast and a highly respected director, yet no one has mentioned it. Maybe it was done in by the studio moving its release date from fall to Christmas Day.

"The Good Shepherd": Same deal, except for no release date problem.

"Casino Royale": Yes, it's a Bond movie, but it's a great Bond movie. Actually, it's a great movie, period.

BEST ACTOR

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The race is between Forest Whitaker ("The Last King of Scotland") and Peter O'Toole ("Venus"), with Leonardo DiCaprio close behind, for either "Blood Diamond" or "The Departed" (the Golden Globes nominated him for both, something the academy no longer does). Will Smith ("The Pursuit of Happyness") has a very good chance, too.

Longshot

Ryan Gosling ("Half Nelson"): SAG likes him and he's very good in a little-seen film. But little-seen could be the deal breaker.

My wish list

Matt Damon ("The Good Shepherd"): Like the film, he doesn't seem to exist.

Daniel Craig ("Casino Royale"): Not even Sean Connery could pull that off.

BEST ACTRESS

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If Judi Dench hadn't shown up with a year-end run in "Notes on a Scandal," they could have just given the award to Helen Mirren ("The Queen") and called it a day. Kate Winslet ("Little Children") and Penélope Cruz ("Volver") will probably join the two dames; they both made the SAG cut. And look for Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada"), which is absurd. Not because she's bad (is she ever?), but because, as the NSFC was savvy enough to point out in its vote, she belongs in the supporting category.

Longshots

Maggie Gyllenhaal ("Sherrybaby"): She's incredible, but she's got Ryan Gosling's problem. No one's seen her film.

Beyoncé Knowles ("Dreamgirls"): She'd have a better chance if Jennifer Hudson hadn't walked off with the movie, but she could still squeak through.

My wish list

Naomi Watts ("The Painted Veil"): SAG didn't go for her. Neither did the Globes. That's hard to overcome, especially if you're a "name" actress.

Emma Thompson ("Stranger Than Fiction"): The movie didn't quite deliver, but she did.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

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Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls"), because he's pulled off the comeback of the year, and Brad Pitt ("Babel"), because he's Brad Pitt, are assured nominations. Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine") will probably join them, not just for his performance here, but for his long record of great work. Then there's the mess with "The Departed." Are DiCaprio, Damon and Jack Nicholson all supporting players? Or are DiCaprio and Damon a better fit for best actor (that's what the Globes thought about DiCaprio, though SAG placed him here). And what do you do about Mark Wahlberg? All are terrific, but my hunch is Smilin' Jack will come out on top. Then again, they might cancel each other out.

Longshots

James McAvoy ("The Last King of Scotland"): He delivers, in the purest sense, a true supporting performance. Whitaker wouldn't be half as good without him.

Michael Sheen ("The Queen"): He's gotten some buzz among the critics groups, but was stiffed by both the Globes and SAG. Still, his work is as crucial to Mirren's portrayal as McAvoy's is to Whitaker's.

Jackie Earle Haley ("Little Children"): Well, there's that molestation thing again.

My wish list

Dustin Hoffman ("Stranger Than Fiction"): He's matured into one of the best character actors in Hollywood, but the movie didn't catch on.

Sacha Baron Cohen ("Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby"): I'm not kidding. He's better here as an effete, opera-loving, croissant-crunching NASCAR driver than he is as Borat.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

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Jennifer Hudson ("Dreamgirls") is this category's version of Helen Mirren. Hudson's very good, and her underdog story is even better. However, the best work in a supporting role this year was done by Cate Blanchett ("Notes on a Scandal") and at least she'll get a nomination. Little Abigail Breslin ("Little Miss Sunshine") is likely to nab a spot over her adult co-star Toni Collette, though both give fine performances. And then there's the babble about "Babel." Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi have emerged as a kind of odd-couple team in the various votes.

Longshots

Emily Blunt ("The Devil Wears Prada"): They like her a lot in New York, but I don't know about Hollywood.

Sandra Bullock ("Infamous"): She keeps taking risks when she could keep playing Adorable. It would be nice to see her effort recognized.

Diane Lane ("Hollywoodland"): As Ben Affleck's sultry older woman, she's the best thing in the movie.

Meryl Streep ("The Devil Wears Prada"): It's a gem of a supporting turn and it belongs here, where she has half a chance.

BEST DIRECTOR

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Martin Scorsese ("The Departed"), of course. And this time he may finally win. His nemesis Clint Eastwood, too, but for which movie? And there's the little matter of Eastwood being snubbed by the Directors Guild of America, whose choice has foreshadowed Oscar's all but six times in 58 years. Add Alejandro González Iñárritu ("Babel") because, for some reason, his movie has emerged as the important movie among the contenders. Stephen Frears ("The Queen") has been named (deservedly so) by both SAG and the Globes. And Bill Condon ("Dreamgirls") will probably be in there, if only because his movie is.

Longshots

Paul Greengrass ("United 93"): Like his excellent film, he just isn't getting a fair shake, though some critics groups cited him.

Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris ("Little Miss Sunshine"): It's a wow of a debut, but there's no telling how comfortable the academy is with nominating a first feature by former video directors (though the DGA had no problem).

My wish list

Alfonso Cuarón ("Children of Men"): His movie is better than "Babel" and his direction is better than Iñárritu's.

Todd Field ("Little Children"): What's his problem? He's indie, and he's based on the East Coast (Maine, for goodness' sake).

Robert De Niro ("The Good Shepherd"): He's been coasting in his acting career recently, but here, directing gets his full attention. Wouldn't it be something if he were up against his mentor Scorsese?