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The Music Scene

Posted: 3:28 p.m. Thursday, Feb. 7, 2013

Grammy predictions: Who do you think will win? 

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Gotye
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Gotye just might take home Record of the Year.

Related

BK photo
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The Black Keys are the front-runner for Album of the Year...unless Mumford & Sons wins instead.
Nas photo
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Nas deserves to win Best Rap Album.

By Melissa Ruggieri

As I discuss in greater detail in this Grammy story, this year’s nominees are exceptionally diverse, with six artists each receiving six nominations.

Here are my predictions – or, more like wild guesses – for a handful of categories.

 

 Record of the Year

Nominees: “Lonely Boy” (The Black Keys); “Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)” (Kelly Clarkson); “We Are Young” (fun. featuring Janelle Monae); “Somebody That I Used to Know” (Gotye); “Thinkin’ Bout You” (Frank Ocean); “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” (Taylor Swift).

Likely winner: Gotye’s quirky lament will remind older voter of Sting and Peter Gabriel in their heydays, while younger box checkers will herald it for being the most musically interesting song on mainstream radio last year (until it became gratingly ubiquitous).

 

Album of the Year

Nominees: “El Camino” (The Black Keys); “Some Nights” (fun.); “Babel” (Mumford & Sons); “Channel Orange” (Frank Ocean); “Blunderbuss” (Jack White).

Likely winner: Sometimes this category swings toward big sellers (Adele), other times it leaves viewers wondering what randomizer picked the winner (Steely Dan) and still more often, a smart, musically cohesive offering wins.

That means it’s a toss-up between Mumford & Sons’ barnstorming “Babel,” the fourth biggest seller of 2012, and the raw and exciting Black Keys, who stand to gain the most commercially from this year’s telecast. I’m giving the edge to the Keys.

 

Song of the Year (songwriter’s award)

Nominees: “The A-Team” (Ed Sheeran); “Adorn” (Miguel); “Call Me Maybe (Tavish Crowe, Carly Rae Jepson, John Ramsay); “Stronger (What Doesn’t Kill You)” (Jörgen Elofsson, David Gamson, Greg Kurstin and Ali Tamposi for Kelly Clarkson); “We Are Young” (fun.’s Jack Antonoff, Andrew Dost and Nate Ruess with Jeff Bhasker).

Likely winner: Another category where at least three of these songs could emerge victorious. How can we ignore Sheeran’s graceful breakthrough or Jepson’s insanely catchy summer piffle that incited a cultural movement? Easily, by putting them in a category with fun., whose Queen-leaning anthem of friendship and good-natured debauchery deserves the gold.

 

Best New Artist

Nominees: Alabama Shakes, fun., Hunter Hayes, The Lumineers and Frank Ocean.

Likely winner: I don’t expect the brilliant neophyte Ocean to command many of the marquee categories, but this is the perfect place to honor his ability to mix vintage and fresh, intelligence and sensitivity. This is a particularly strong category this year, so I also wouldn’t be shocked if fun,’s commercial success helped them sneak in for the steal. Still, advantage Ocean.

 

Best Rap Album

Nominees: “Take Care” (Drake); “Food & Liquor II: The Great American Rap Album, Pt. 1” (Lupe Fiasco); “Life is Good” (Nas); “Undun” (The Roots); “God Forgives, I Don’t” (Rick Ross); “Based on a T.R.U. Story” (2 Chainz).

Likely winner: As much as I’d like to submit a vote of confidence for Atlanta’s 2 Chainz, who is enjoying a smashing breakout year, and as much as I admire Drake’s fluidity, my money is on Nas, who produced not only the best rap album of 2012, but one of the best albums, period.

 

Best County Song

Nominees:“Blown Away” (Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins for Carrie Underwood); “Cost of Livin’” (Phillip Coleman and Ronnie Dunn); “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” (Will Hoge and Eric Paslay for Eli Young Band); “So You Don’t Have to Love Me Anymore” (Jay Knowles and Adam Wright for Alan Jackson); “Springsteen” (Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell).

Likely winner: Don’t expect stalwarts Jackson and Dunn to fare successfully this year. At least not with Church’s memorable “Springsteen” in the running. He’s already been heralded by his own genre’s award shows; expect global recognition for him Sunday night.

 

Best Rock Album

Nominees: “El Camino” (The Black Keys); “Mylo Xyloto” (Coldplay); “The 2nd Law” (Muse); “Wrecking Ball” (Bruce Springsteen); “Blunderbuss” (Jack White).

Likely winner: And speaking of The Boss…the voting committee ignored Springsteen’s solid, insightful, musically diverse “Wrecking Ball” as an Album of the Year contender, so this is their chance to right that Ben Affleck-ian oversight, especially if The Black Keys wind up nabbing Album of the Year honors.

(Don't forget to check out our all-things-Grammy page and visit The Music Scene over the weekend for live reports from Los Angeles.)

What are some of your Grammy picks?

About Melissa Ruggieri

Melissa Ruggieri covers music and entertainment and maintains the Atlanta Music Scene blog on accessAtlanta.

Connect with Melissa Ruggieri on:TwitterFacebook

Send Melissa Ruggieri an email.

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