"Dancing With the Stars" has lasted 16 seasons but is showing its age through all the ruffles and sequins.

The mix of dancers this year is better than season 14 and the forgetable all-star season 15. But there aren't any real controversial people - unless you count Andy Dick's alcohol and drug issues.

At the same time, we saw an interesting blend Monday night of awful (D.L. Hughley), entertainingly amateur (Wynonna) and pure fun (Jacoby Jones, Kellie Pickler).  They will dance again next Monday, followed by the first elimination on Tuesday, March 26. Tonight, the show is airing a "best of" special at 9 p.m.

Here's my guess on who will finish near the top and who will be gone before tax season is over.  I base this on their first dance as well as a host of other factors, including dance partner, level of fame and past performances of comparable stars of years past.

The likely contenders

Jacoby Jones, NFL player: Jones was injured and only had a week to rehearse. In general, he has musicality and dance skills. "It was like a medley of touchdown dances," Carrie Ann said. "It was all icing, no cake. The technique was terrible," Len said. He'll get better. Most NFL players tend to rock it on this show. Three have already won: Emmitt Smith (season three), Hines Ward (season 13) and Donald Driver (season 14) won. Jerry Rice (season two), Jason Taylor (season six) and Warren Sapp (season seven) came in second. None have finished worse than seventh. First dance score: 20

Kellie Pickler, country singer: The very first "American Idol" alum who has been on DWTS could obviously sing but could she dance? Well, yes. Her cha-cha-cha had sparkle. She possesses great hip action, a huge personality and a dance-friendly body. She also has plenty of potential. She finished fifth on "Idol" season five (the show's biggest season). She could very well do even better on this show. And it helps that she has popular Derek Hough as a partner. His partners tend to do better than expected. He's won twice (Jennifer Grey, Nicole Scherzinger) and has never finished worse than sixth over 14 competitions. First dance score: 21

Zendaya, Disney Channel's "Shake It Up": She the youngest participant ever on the show, at age 16. But she shows the usual poise and maturity Disney actors own and excels in the though contemporary category that DWTS has avoided to date with fluidity and grace. In general, Disney actors tend to do very well on the show given all their training, acting, dancing and otherwise, though they aren't typically household names. None have won. For example, Monique Coleman (fourth season three), Sabrina Bryan (seventh, season five, then eighth season 15, who showed more talent than popularity), Cody Linley (fourth, season seven), Kyle Massey (second, season 11), Chelsea Kane (third, season 12) and Roshon Fagan (sixth, season 14) First dance score: 24

Middle ground

Alexandra Raisman, Olympic gymnast: It's a given that athletes tend to do well on the show, especially Olympic winners and even more so, gymnasts. Shawn Johnson won season eight. Her cha cha was pretty good. Bruno Tonioli will say it so I don't have to: "You're ready to burst out big time! You can shake it like the best. Really surprising and very inspiring." Carrie said it was a bit too safe and was out of musicality. I'm not sure she will make it to the finals at this point, but she should be around awhile. First dance score: 21

Dorothy Hamill, Olympic figure skater: She is the elder stateswoman of this season at age 56. Tapping her abilities on the skating ring in the 1970s, she made a strong emotional connection to the song during this contemporary dance, though Bruno said there were some balance issues due to strength (or lack thereof). I get a sense the older viewers of DWTS will give her plenty of votes and keep her around for awhile. Kristi Yamaguchi, another Olympic figure skating champ, won season five, but that's not a fair comparison. Kristi was 36 at the time.First dance score: 21

Victor Ortiz, boxer: He's a pretty looking boxer who showed a bit of a stiff foot early on but loosened up as the foxtrot went along. He has a great smile and appears to be having fun. The track record of past boxers is not great. Atlanta's Evander Holyfield finished fifth out of six season one. Floyd Mayweather Jr. landed ninth season five, as did Sugar Ray Leonard season nine. First dance score: 18

Ingo Rademacher, soap star "General Hospital": He showed impressive athleticism in this contemporary dance with lifts galore. It was a really tough dance for a first effort. Len Goodman complained he didn't dance much but he clearly could get better. It doesn't help he's relatively unknown outside of soap circles. Being a soap star has generated mixed results. Kelly Monaco won season one, third season 15. Cameron Matheson finished fifth season five. Susan Lucci was seventh season seven. Aiden Turner was ninth season 10. Jack Wagner surprisingly was cut early season 14, just 11th. First dance score: 20

Sean Lowe, "Bachelor": He has zero hip action but decent posture in his cha cha. "You lack finesse," Len said. Carrie Ann Inaba noted he has a fierceness determination about him that could help him as he improves. There is no pattern with "Bachelor"/"Bachelorette" contestants. While Tristan Sutter was out first season one and Jake Pavelka landed seventh season 10, Melissa Rycroft finished third season 8, then won the all-star edition this past fall. Score: 19

Wynonna, country singer: It's fair to say she is clearly not a dancer and has never been one. The routine was incredibly dumbed down (she barely moves) but she pulled it off with panache and a twinkle in her eye. The judges gave her  a very generous score. "You were a bit casual," Bruno noted. She's a popular, likable person. She will generate votes. And she has Tony Dovolani as her partner, which does not hurt either. Country singers haven't done too badly on the show though none have made the finals: Sara Evans (sixth, season three), Billy Ray Cyrus (fifth, season four, and he wasn't very good), Chuck Wicks (sixth, season eight) Grade: 18

Early fodder

Andy Dick, actor/comic: He says he's sober and ready to dance. He struggled in the rehearsals and is a potential emotional wreck. The cha cha wasn't a disaster. It didn't quite click either. "It had skittish charm," Bruno said. "It could have been much smoother." Carrie: "You touched me with that dance." Len: "It had the fluidity of Robocop." I have no idea if he'll bring in voters at all, whether he's good or not. First dance score: 17

Lisa Vanderpump, reality star "Real Housewives of Beverly Hills," "Vanderpump Rules":  Her foxtrot was, as Goodman noted, "acceptable, not exceptional." But she seemed at home. She's one of the older contestants (age 52) and has no obvious athletic background. Reality stars, which pop up frequently on the show, have been all over the map, results wise, and they are too numerous to list in completion. She is the first "Housewives" person to be on the show (since it's an NBC Universal product, unlike, say, "The Bachelor.") I'm not convinced she has the following or enough pizazz to last very long. First score: 18

D.L. Hughley, standup comic: Yikes! He has no rhythm or timing. His cha-cha-cha was ba-ba-ba-bad - almost at the level of Master P, still arguably the show's worst dancer to date.  He took the critiques in good humor on the surface though I'm sure his ego is a bit bruised.  "I haven't danced in 30 years. That was like bullying the second grader," he said. The closest comparison to him was Margaret Cho season 11. She finished 10th and I think she was better than him right off the bat. He could very well be the first to go home next week. First dance score: 12